Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

My co-worker and co Yesh Atid voter Michael Lipkin's assessment of the Israeli Election - and my reply:

First Thoughts on the Election Results...
by Michael Lipkin

I love democracy even when I don't love the outcome. And I'm not even sure how I feel about the outcome. I would have preferred a more centrist government than it appears this new one will be.

But there are some potential bright spots like the idea of Kachlon as finance minister. And since Likud itself is not being pulled as much to the right internally, combined with its number seats, it should be able to be more moderate. Also, I think we'll see Bibi walk back some of the more extreme statements he made leading up to the election. And I would love to see him use his new-found electoral strength to seriously engage with the Arab countries with whom we now share some very serious dangerous enemies.

I have an optimistic take on the equal service bill too. As much as I'm not a fan of the Chareidi parties, I don't think their MKs are idiots. They know darn well the this bill, more than anything else, is a jobs and education program their community so desperately needs. My prediction is that they'll make a huge to-do about removing the so-called "criminal sanctions" and leave the rest pretty much intact. We might even see increased funding for some of the programs.

Hopefully also, given the relative small size of these parties, the damage they can do to religion-state and education will be mitigated, though they'll definitely retard the progress that was being made.

And my reply:

I'm less optimistic - Bibi will be emboldened to... do nothing for another 3-4 years. Kahlon will meet the same fate as Lapid, where any plan he has to actually even things out economically will be blocked by a Likud that is beholden to unions and monopolies. Bibi would never want to allow Kahlon to gain popularity under his nose like that.

On the Hareidim I tend to agree with you but we'll see - they have a lot of leveredge.

And 2 key issues you left out - leave me most worries: His reliance on racist tropes with Arab citizens of Israel mean repairing relations with that community (most of whom are non-violent) will be nearly impossible - and will lead to increasing unrest

And Bibi has burned nearly every bridge he had with even our top allies - something he is less inclined to repair with this government. 

Bibi also learned a valuable lesson (had it greatly reinforced): that racism and fear mongering pays off big time at the polls. Instead of enacting good policies, he can just scare people into voting for him by drumming up security crises, real and imagined. 

My biggest fear is that Bibi goes after the Supreme court, which is the only body that has blocked his various 'power grab' tactics to date. If he succeeds in this task, may god have mercy on us all. We will be living under an Erdogan type ruler where we get told who is a good Israeli, the media becomes increasingly 'state sponsored' and Bibi's opponents are expected to try and unseat him with both hands tied behind their backs. 

We're nhot there yet thank god - we'll just have to see how this all plays out though.